AsianFin -- The global smartphone market’s post-pandemic recovery is showing signs of fatigue as demand softens and government subsidies lose steam, particularly in China, once the engine of growth.
“There just isn’t that much demand in the market anymore—everyone who needed to upgrade has already done so, and price incentives can only go so far,” said a staff member at a Huawei authorized store, noting that even Huawei’s new Pura80 series is already being discounted.
According to IDC, global smartphone shipments rose just 1% year-over-year in Q2 to 295.2 million units—a deceleration from previous quarters. Canalys, now merged into Omdia, posted a more sobering figure: a 1% year-on-year decline, breaking a streak of six consecutive quarters of growth.
“The earlier rebound simply pulled demand forward,” one smartphone analyst told TMTPost, calling the outlook for the rest of 2025 “not particularly optimistic.”
U.S. Stockpiles Ahead of Tariffs, China Clears Inventory
While China’s smartphone market grew slightly in Q2 in terms of sales, that momentum was driven largely by government subsidies and aggressive inventory clearance—not new demand. Shipments in China actually fell 4% year-on-year to 69 million units, per IDC.
“Subsidies failed to stimulate fresh demand,” said Nabila Popal, Research Director at IDC. “Although the 618 e-commerce festival helped clear inventory, OEMs and channel partners focused more on reducing stock than pushing new shipments.”
In contrast, U.S. brands ramped up inventory amid looming tariff risks. Apple, Samsung, and Motorola (Lenovo) were among those stockpiling in anticipation of possible import taxes under the Trump administration.
“Manufacturers are shipping aggressively to the U.S. to hedge against tariff uncertainties,” said Canalys analyst Zhong Xiaolei. If tariffs kick in, the U.S. could see price hikes of at least 10% across consumer electronics, including iPhones.
IDC’s Guo Tianxiang noted that many global distributors are now stockpiling in preparation for tariff volatility and supply disruptions.
Huawei Retakes No. 1 Spot in China
Huawei reclaimed the top spot in China’s smartphone market in Q2, according to IDC and Counterpoint data. Analysts credit strong brand loyalty, national subsidy coverage across the nova and Pura series, and solid inventory management.
“Huawei’s comeback after more than four years highlights its strong brand appeal,” said IDC’s Huang Zixing. Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam added that loyal users continue to upgrade within the Huawei ecosystem.
Still, competition is expected to intensify in the second half of the year, especially as subsidies fade and mid-range brands like Xiaomi and OnePlus battle for share.
“The broader economy is under pressure, and consumer confidence remains weak,” said IDC analyst Arthur Guo, predicting little chance of a significant recovery in near-term demand.
Globally, the high-end smartphone segment has remained relatively stable, while the low- to mid-end market is facing growing headwinds, particularly in emerging markets.
Transsion, a budget phone leader in those markets, saw a near 2% drop in Q2 shipments despite returning to the global top five. Its Q1 earnings showed revenue down 25.5% and net profit plunging nearly 70%.
“High living costs and rising memory prices are making consumers more cautious, and manufacturers are pulling back to protect margins,” said IDC’s Arthur Huang.
AI Buzz Fails to Spark Upgrade Cycle
Hopes that generative AI would ignite a new upgrade wave have yet to materialize. “Most consumers still care more about price and brand than AI features,” said Canalys analyst Zhong Xiaolei. “Many users don’t know what AI can actually do for them yet.”
Nabila Popal added, “Economic uncertainty compresses low-end demand, where price sensitivity is highest. As a result, low-end Android devices are experiencing a crisis.”
IDC forecasts global smartphone shipments in 2025 will grow just 0.6% year-over-year to 1.24 billion units.
Still, not all is bleak. Foldable phones may offer a bright spot. Apple’s rumored foldable model, now reportedly on a production timeline, is expected to breathe new life into the segment this year. “Almost every major brand has entered foldables, but Apple’s entrance could accelerate consumer adoption,” said Popal.
That said, price-to-value remains a key barrier. “If foldables remain expensive without delivering significantly better experiences, they’ll remain niche,” Zhong warned.
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